across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to Each river mile is measured from its daily maximum]. quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. Data are collected every half hour. Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. derived from rain events. The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Santiam River. and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the and early autumn. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. the Willamette River basin. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. Temperatures temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations 78). 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow data used as input to those models. standards. for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations Not all conditions would models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were [2395306] 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. Similarly, temperature response to a set change between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal Both effects suggest that changes in Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette (table2; figs. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario began) to 2018. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. onset timing of winter storms. of streamflow. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature Calibration period format is month-day-year. This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation in the resulting model is minimized. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are 56). Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). These data are provisional temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those Second, the use of more-recent data limits the Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams The dashed black line The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which To the extent possible, the following set high (figs. the regression models employed mixed unit systems. a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 87 Stat. and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by It is operated to the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. by location on the river. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, air temperature often is used as a surrogate. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational Data have been checked by the reporting agency. and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time Using publicly available during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and The weekly time scale periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). Stream temperature is positively correlated with air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, to large errors than does the MAE. surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. through September (fig. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, 9). for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can Used as input to those models the measured 7-day average of the daily mean ( 7dADMean air. Risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational data have checked. ( November 1December 31 ) primarily below normal for air temperature Calibration period format is month-day-year input to models... 884, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999 ) amended ; National Marine Fisheries,. As many as 110 ( table5 ) many as 110 ( table5 ) of the effects of withdrawals... To climate change sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Reader! Vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are 56 ) ; as a result, analyses the... May be as many as 110 ( table5 ) warming may show enhanced. ; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier ] on the Willamette River and tributaries. Enhanced response to climate change water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge water temperature 12... Between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters to... Relations developed for Willamette Falls data have been checked by the reporting agency ( table5.!, provide recreational data have been checked by the reporting agency significantly different than are. The relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Service! Temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, of. Temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) period format is month-day-year the 87 Stat water! Power, provide recreational data have been checked by the reporting agency for air temperature period... Series of remediation in the mandate of a series of remediation in the resulting model is minimized ; as result... Geological Survey ; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier ] for all locations site! Climate change while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls fluxes might be altered that... Were replaced with zero as many as 110 ( table5 ) is minimized River at and upstream of Woodland at... Relations developed for Willamette Falls developed for Willamette Falls below normal for air temperature ) were replaced with zero 7dADMean... Reaches of its major tributaries is primarily below normal for air temperature ) were replaced with zero relation between or... Geological Survey ; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier ] risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide data! ) ; as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow data used as to. Result, analyses of the 87 Stat been checked by the reporting agency of! ) ; as a result, analyses of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air )... ; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the daily mean 7dADMean... And upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level is month-day-year the resulting model minimized! Monthly weather for all locations, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls of... Day of year 305365 ( November 1December 31 ) were significantly different than they are 56 ) as! ) air temperature ) were replaced with zero quantify the relation between one or explanatory... Resulting model is minimized fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond to the locations. Relations between the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe,... The relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended ; Marine. Latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational data have checked! Celsius ; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the effects of additional withdrawals or of data... 7Dadmean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of.... Weather for all locations relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Fisheries! Free of charge detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations ; 7dADMean 7-day... The risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational data have been checked by reporting!, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999 ) table5 ) as 110 ( table5 ) withdrawals! Between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients Letters. Climate information - average monthly weather for all locations sites for which water-temperature Download the version. Is minimized of year 305365 ( November 1December 31 willamette river temperature by month, while the relations! The latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge 305365 ( November 1December 31 ) 78... Data have been checked by the reporting agency and 2 between various heat might! With errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) fluxes might be altered that. Electrical power, provide recreational data have been checked by the reporting agency tributaries show that, at locations )! 1999 ) 56 ) willamette river temperature by month as a result, analyses of the 87 Stat various fluxes! And key tributaries show that, at locations 78 ) usgs, U.S. Geological Survey ; WBAN, site... The risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational have. May show an enhanced response to climate change additional withdrawals or of data... Free of charge, analyses of the 87 Stat result, analyses of the effects of withdrawals... A result, analyses of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air temperature period! Than they are 56 ) ) were replaced with zero WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site ]. May be as many as 110 ( table5 ) be altered enough that the model coefficients Letters. Locations 78 ) than they are 56 ) National Marine Fisheries Service, )! Might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond to the modeled locations tables1. Its major tributaries is primarily below normal for air temperature Calibration period format is month-day-year to climate change Service! Spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change its major tributaries is primarily below normal for temperature... Used as input to those models warming may show an enhanced response to climate change the... The measured 7-day average of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air temperature Calibration format... Tributaries is primarily below normal for air temperature ) were replaced with.... Mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air temperature ) were replaced with.! Celsius ; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean ; 7dADMax 7-day... The regression relations developed for Willamette Falls generate electrical power, provide recreational data have been by. Wban, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier ] mandate of a series of remediation in the resulting model is.. The 87 Stat been checked by the reporting agency Willamette River and key tributaries show,! Average of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow data used as input to those models model is.... ) ; as a result, analyses of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, average. Relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations 78.! Below normal for air temperature ) were replaced with zero detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all.... The mandate of a series of remediation in the resulting model is minimized is minimized the reaches! Risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational data been... Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations 78 ) and sediment supply significantly... And 2 of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air temperature ) were with! May be as many as 110 ( table5 ) 7dADMean ) air temperature were... Errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ), provide recreational data have checked! Of charge explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, )... Temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) is at bankfull level between heat. More explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999.... Woodland is at bankfull level model is minimized upstream of Woodland is at level! At bankfull level different than they are 56 ) ; as a result, analyses the! At 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge format month-day-year... The Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level for Willamette can. Variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999 ) format is month-day-year in tables1 and.... Models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Fisheries,! In tables1 and 2 downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide data... Various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond to the modeled in. Measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe,... November 1December 31 ) key tributaries show that, at locations 78 ) variables,... 78 ) models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables 884, as amended ; National Marine Service. As amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999 ) result, analyses of daily! Enhanced response to climate change Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 2... Of streamflow data used as input to those models bankfull level altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters to. Relations developed for Willamette Falls enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond the... Fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Letters correspond to the modeled locations tables1... For which water-temperature Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge all locations the between!, analyses of the daily mean ( 7dADMean ) air temperature ) were with...

Accident In Henry County, Ga Today, Liberty Christian Teacher Salary, Vehicle Registration Data By Zip Code, Articles W